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Analysis of gold for March 20, 2014

Profile photo of Wayne McDonell by Wayne McDonell
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Most Fed watchers expected the central bank to announce that they will reduce the size of its monthly bond buying by further $ 10 billion, to $ 55 billion. Currently, short-term interest rates are roughly in line with FOMC forecasts. If the interest rates start rising, then gold prices will come down. The Fed did what everyone expected. Gold plunged to a 1-week low and the US dollar moved to higher levels. Beginning in April, the central bank will add to its holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $ 25 billion per month rather than $ 30 billion per month, and will add to its holdings of long-term Treasury securities at a pace of $ 30 billion per month rather than $ 35 billion per month. The biggest news was that the FOMC dropped its 6.5 percent unemployment forward guidance threshold for possibly raising interest rates.

Technical view-

Gold was beaten hardly at the $ 1391 level. Gold has been dropping for three consecutive days. Gold plunged to the strong support level at $ 1328.0. During yesterday’s trading session, gold broke the 200EMA level, closed below the EMA level, and broke the previous support level as well, which added fuel for bears. Today within Asia’s trading session, gold is unable to cross the 200EMA level that raises more bearish thoughts.

Intraday and Positional-

In the H4 and H1charts, RSI shows a pullback signal as it stays in oversold zone. Currently, gold is trading at $ 1,329.60. As per the RSI if pullback comes to price, on the up side we will see $ 1,331.0 acting as stiff resistance. If price crosses above the $ 1,331.0, we will see $ 1,338.0 immediately. Fresh up move is to be only above the level of $ 1,338.0 for targets at $ 1,343.0, $ 1,350.0, $ 1,354.0, and $ 1357.0.

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On the downside, if the price is unable to cross the $ 1,331.0 level, gold will drift to $ 1,325, $ 1321, $ 1,315-$ 1,310 levels. But for the time being, as we saw in the hourly charts, RSI is in oversold conditions. So just wait for another pullback and enter short at higher levels. In the daily chart, fib level 38.2 and 50SMA are acting as support zone in the near term. On the weekly basis, the fib level 23.6, $ 1,322.5, and 50SMA at $ 1,321.0 is acting as strong support, we can see this levels today only.

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Recommendation-

Intraday

Buy between $ 1,325.0 and $ 1,323.5, targets are $ 1,331.0, above this, $ 1,337.0. Add more if it comes to $ 1,320.0.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com
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