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Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jan 20, 2016)

Profile photo of Kate Curtis - Forex.Today by Kate Curtis - Forex.Today

The US dollar was off to a weak start when risk-taking took place but soon regained the top spot when the market mood turned sour. There have been no major reports out of the US then, as the IMF’s decision to lower global growth forecasts was one of the biggest reasons for the return in risk aversion. For today, US CPI and building permits data are up for release.

The euro managed to stay somewhat resilient in recent trading sessions, even taking advantage of the weakness in commodity currencies. Data from the region was mostly stronger than expected, as the current account balance beat expectations while the euro zone final CPI reading was unchanged. The German ZEW economic sentiment index fell from 18.1 to 10.2, higher than the estimated 8.2 figure. Only the German PPI is due from the euro zone today.

The pound was in for a carnage when BOE Governor Carney clarified that they’re not ready to hike interest rates anytime soon. He explained that the slowdown in China is likely to weigh on global growth and inflation, adding that they have no timetable for tightening yet. UK inflation reports actually beat expectations, with the headline figure rising from 0.1% to 0.2% and the core figure climbing from 1.2% to 1.4%. UK jobs data is due today and a 4.1K increase in claimants is eyed while the average earnings index could slide from 2.4% to 2.1%.

The franc held its ground even as Swiss PPI came in weaker than expected with a 0.4% decline versus the projected 0.2% increase. The ZEW economic expectations index is due today and an improvement from the previous 16.6 figure might be positive for the franc.

The yen took advantage of the run in risk aversion at the start of the US trading session, as BOE Governor Carney’s speech and the IMF downgrades hit the airwaves. There were no reports out of Japan yesterday and none are due today, which suggests that risk sentiment could continue to drive price action.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

Data from China came in slightly weaker than expected but comdolls managed to stay afloat during the earlier trading sessions, only to give up ground when US traders returned to their desks. The IMF’s downgrades on this year’s and next year’s growth forecasts weighed heavily on the commodity currencies since the agency highlighted the potential repercussions on exports. Also, New Zealand’s dairy auction yielded a 1.4% drop in prices while their quarterly CPI showed a larger than expected 0.5% drop. In Australia, Westpac consumer sentiment fell by 3.5%. The BOC statement is due next and a 0.25% rate cut is eyed.

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