The US dollar had a pretty volatile day, as it benefitted from risk aversion in the earlier trading sessions but gave up most of its gains later on. Data from the US was mostly weaker than expected, with both headline and core CPI missing forecasts. For today, only the natural gas storage and crude oil inventories numbers are due, although these might have a stronger impact on comdolls.
The euro had a mixed performance as it gave up ground to the yen and dollar but advanced against the commodity currencies. German PPI was weaker than expected with a 0.5% decline versus the projected 0.3% drop. The ECB statement is scheduled today and no easing announcements are expected, although traders are likely to pay close attention to any changes in rhetoric.
The pound was off to a weak start but soon recovered when the UK jobs figures came in mostly stronger than expected. Analysts expected claimants to rise by 4.1K but saw an increase of 4.3K in hiring instead. The jobless rate edged down from 5.2% to 5.1% but the average earnings index reflected a lack of wage growth as it fell from 2.4% to 2.0%. There are no major reports due from the UK today.
The franc gave up ground when the ZEW economic sentiment index fell from 16.6 to -3.0, indicating pessimism. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today, which suggests that the franc could take its cue from the ECB announcement and euro price action.
The Japanese yen rallied in the earlier trading sessions when the risk-off environment was still in play. Talks of further BOJ easing also lifted the safe-haven currency but it had to return its winnings when sentiment improved later on. The Japanese all industries activity index is due today and a 0.7% decline is expected.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls made a strong recovery recently, especially after the BOC decided to keep rates unchanged at 0.50%. According to the official statement, risks to inflation remain balanced and the central bank is counting on the government’s fiscal stimulus to help keep the economy afloat even without an additional rate cut. In Australia, inflation expectations fell from 4.0% to 3.6%. Crude oil inventories and natural gas storage numbers are due next.