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Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jan 26, 2016)

Profile photo of Kate Curtis - Forex.Today by Kate Curtis - Forex.Today

The US dollar regained ground in recent sessions when risk-off flows dominated price action. There have been no reports out of the US yesterday but the slump in oil prices was enough to send traders scurrying back to the safe-havens. The US flash services PMI, CB consumer confidence index, and Richmond manufacturing index are all due today.

The euro resumed its rallies, taking advantage of some of the risk-off flows even with downbeat data. Germany’s Ifo business climate index fell from 108.6 to 107.3, worse than the estimated drop to 108.5. There are no major reports lined up from the euro zone today.

The pound retreated from its climb when the UK CBI industrial order expectations came in weaker than expected. The reading fell from -7 to -15, worse than the projected drop to -10. BOE Governor Carney is set to testify today and another round of cautious comments could weigh on the pound.

The franc was also able to profit from some of the risk-off flows in recent trading sessions, although that could change on today’s release of the Swiss trade balance. Analysts are expecting to see a wider surplus of 3.33 billion CHF compared to the previous 3.14 billion CHF figure, but underlying import and export components might be more crucial in terms of determining the franc’s reaction.

The yen gave up some ground on speculations of further BOJ easing later this week but was able to recoup its losses when risk aversion returned. There have been no major reports out of Japan, leaving traders to react to market sentiment or set their positions ahead of the BOJ statement.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls returned their recent wins when commodity prices tumbled, taking WTI crude oil below $30/barrel again. In Australia, the NAB business confidence index fell from 5 to 3 to indicate weaker optimism. In New Zealand, credit card spending picked up by 7.4%. No other reports are due from the comdoll economies today, keeping risk sentiment in play.

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