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Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jan 27, 2016)

Profile photo of Kate Curtis - Forex.Today by Kate Curtis - Forex.Today


The US dollar gave up ground when risk appetite picked up during the latter trading sessions once more, as oil prices made a strong rebound. Data from the US economy came in mixed, with the CB consumer confidence improving and beating expectations. However, the flash services PMI and Richmond manufacturing index showed declines. For today, the FOMC statement will be made and no monetary policy changes are expected. Still, traders could pay attention to any change in rhetoric and clues for a March hike.

The euro was barely able to take advantage of yen and dollar weakness, as the prospect of further ECB easing weighed on the shared currency. The German GfK consumer climate index is up for release today and a drop from 9.4 to 9.4 is eyed.

The pound suffered a sharp selloff when BOE Governor Carney reiterated his downbeat bias, citing that the central bank isn’t ready to hike anytime soon and that negative rates might even be a possibility. Only the Nationwide HPI and BBA mortgage approvals figures are up for release today.

The franc experienced a sudden drop in recent trading, partly spurred by the weaker than expected Swiss trade balance. Traders speculated that the SNB might be slowly intervening in the forex markets to prepare for any additional ECB easing in March. The Swiss UBS consumption indicator is up for release today.

The yen was also in a weak spot when risk appetite returned to the financial markets towards the end of the European session. There have been no reports out of Japan recently and none are due today, leaving traders to price in their expectations for the BOJ statement.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls were able to find support from the rebound in oil prices, even though data simply came in line with expectations. Australia’s quarterly CPI landed at 0.4%, down from the previous 0.5% figure but higher than the projected 0.3% reading. Crude oil inventories data is due today, ahead of the FOMC and RBNZ interest rate statement.

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