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Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jan 29, 2016)

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USD
The US dollar gave up more ground to its peers when US data came in mostly weaker than expected. Headline durable goods orders fell 4.4% while core durable goods orders dropped 1.2%. Pending home sales rose 0.1% only instead of showing the projected 1.0% gain. Advanced GDP data is due today and a 0.8% growth figure is eyed, although weaker than expected data could mean more losses for the dollar.

EUR
The euro was able to take advantage of dollar and yen weakness yesterday, as euro zone data came in slightly better than expected. The German preliminary CPI fell 0.8% as expected while the Spanish unemployment rate improved from 21.2% to 20.9%. Euro zone CPI estimates are due today, along with flash GDP readings from Spain and France.

GBP
The pound also gained ground when the UK preliminary GDP reading came in line with expectations of 0.5% growth. CBI realized sales data was weaker than expected, as the index fell from 19 to 16, worse than the estimated fall to 18. There are no major reports due from the UK economy today.

CHF
The franc erased some of its previous losses when risk appetite improved, even though there were no major reports out of the Swiss economy. There are still no reports due from Switzerland today but the euro zone’s CPI estimates could revive SNB intervention speculations.

JPY
The yen lost ground on account of risk appetite and weak Japanese data. Household spending slumped by 4.4% year-over-year in December while the Tokyo core CPI printed a 0.1% decline. The national core CPI came in line with expectations of a 0.1% uptick while the unemployment rate held steady at 3.3%. Preliminary industrial production was also weaker than expected with a 1.4% slump. The BOJ decision is scheduled today, with some analysts expecting additional stimulus.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls were able to squeeze out more gains on rumors of an OPEC emergency meeting for production cuts. Russia’s oil minister said that Saudi had a proposal for countries to cut production by 5% but an OPEC official dismissed these rumors. In Australia, PPI data came in weaker than expected, hinting of weaker price pressures down the line. Canadian GDP and underlying inflation figures are up for release next.

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