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GBPJPY Analysis – Where is the bottom? (Dec 15)

Profile photo of YJ Baik - Forex.Today by YJ Baik - Forex.Today
2015-12-15_18-45-58-GJ7

GBPJPY pair (as well as USDJPY) has been down for the entire week.

Where is the bottom?

Previously I wrote “I am now Bull with this pair” because the price was above Daily Ichimoku Cloud.  But the price dropped off from Daily Cloud.

Thus I cannot buy this pair until we confirm the drop is over.

The drop may be because of “Risk Off” momentum.

Before FOMC, I am not sure if it makes sense to post any trade setups today.

 

Instead, I would like to consider where the bottom may be, simply from Technical analysis point of view.

 

  1. Weekly Ichimoku

    The price is in the middle of the cloud.  I am considering the bottom of the cloud can be a support for this pair.
    The bottom of the cloud is 181.90

    2015-12-15_16-57-16-GJ-1

  2. Pivot Theory (1)

    Based on Monthly Pivot, the drop started from MPP.  Thus we can assume the drop will continue to MS2 (181.56).

    2015-12-15_18-38-51-GJ2

  3. Pivot Theory (2)

    Based on Weekly Pivot, the drop started from WPP. Thus we can assume the drop will continue to WS2 (181.60)

    2015-12-15_18-43-49-GJ5

  4. Fibonacci Theory

    On Daily chart, the drop started from 188.80.  But we saw the pullback up to Fibonacci 50%.  Thus 50% predicts down to 138.2%, which has already happened.
    (Oh snap!  The price dropped EXACTLY down to 138.2%!)   Thus the drop may be over???

    2015-12-15_18-40-59-GJ4

  5. Everything together!

    So all these theories predict the bottom almost there.

    2015-12-15_18-45-58-GJ7

    I would still like to see the price actions after FOMC announcement, and make sure (by the price action on Hourly chart), to confirm the uptrend, before I start buying any YEN pairs.

YJ Baik – Forex.Today @ Tokyo

 

 

 

 

 

 

6 comments on “GBPJPY Analysis – Where is the bottom? (Dec 15)”

  1. Profile photo of Artem
        December 15, 2015

    Thank you YJ. Im trying to find the bottom there too, and my analysis sais exactly the same thing as yours. Have a nice day

    1. Profile photo of YJ Baik - Forex.Today
          December 16, 2015

      I am glad to hear that, Artem!! Thanks for your comment!!

      -YJ

  2. Profile photo of Maryna
        December 16, 2015

    Hi YJ, Maryna here, I see that the trendline on GBPJPY has broken and this dates back to October of last year.This level has been tested a few times and finally broke through with a potential for a 1700pip move down to 165.60. Of course with FOMC tonight one never knows, but this is my long term view on GBPJPY. Would like to know what you think? Regards, Maryna

  3. Profile photo of Maryna
        December 16, 2015

    Oops, forgot to add that I looked at the weekly chart of GBPJPY.

    1. Profile photo of YJ Baik - Forex.Today
          December 16, 2015

      Hi Maryna, Thanks for your comment. Yes, I agree. As far as reading from Weekly chart, I’d say the price may drop down to (I wouldn’t say 165… but) perhaps 175.00 (Low in April 2015)
      However, the fact that the candle is still within the Cloud of Weekly Ichimoku stops me from being Bear. I guess once the candle drops down from the Cloud on Weekly Ichimoku (meaning, once the price goes down below 182.0, then I will seriously become Bear with this pair.

      But hey, you are the GBP expert, right? So I will take your opinion very seriously!

      Thank you again, for your comment/analysis.

      -YJ

  4. Profile photo of Agostinho Santos
        December 16, 2015

    YJ Thank you very much, excellent Work.

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